每日「曹仁超——投資者日記」

Watch the dow whether is will trade between 10,000...

2009-11-09T16:25:02.274-08:00

Watch the dow whether is will trade between 10,000 and 10,500 in this week. Test the curse of Dow10,000.

Forget all the historical data, it cannot predict the future because we enter the new era of economic world.

David

It seems that quite a majority of investors are wa...

2009-11-08T07:38:51.138-08:00

It seems that quite a majority of investors are waiting for a notable correction. If that is the case, the correction will be small. Don't expect too much! Gary!

Hi, i am the one said Chao gave two points above, ...

2009-11-08T07:15:01.433-08:00

Hi, i am the one said Chao gave two points above, to make it clear that i am not his fan, the purpose i come to here to read is that i feel interesting, after reading i might know some info which i may not obtain from others, that's all. however, i did not use his points to take my action, i hv my own brain. i have entered the stock market from end March and sold all end Oct. cos difficult to make during sideway period. now waiting the correction in dec this yr. it's pitty for those who did not hv any position in the market sice march, that why many people complaining abt him. from Gary

From the above 13 inputs, I can see many of Cho's ...

2009-11-07T08:26:45.512-08:00

From the above 13 inputs, I can see many of Cho's fans are becoming more perplexed and unhappy than one year ago because they have missed one of the good chance in a life time to jump into the stock market. At this level, I am afraid many fans don't dare to jump in even if Cho advised them to go ahead.
As for myself, I don't believe USA will repeat the history of Japan.
I am waiting for Cho to turn bullish. By then, I will reduce my investment as do LEE Siu Kay.
Keep watching!

我的英文唔好咁好,睇到有的頭痛. 其實只要你長追著曹生的文章黎看,就知佢講的野岩定係事後孔明,還有...

2009-11-06T03:00:25.438-08:00

我的英文唔好咁好,睇到有的頭痛.

其實只要你長追著曹生的文章黎看,就知佢講的野岩定係事後孔明,還有,佢好多時講的野都模稜兩可的,只要用心閱讀,你總會搵出佢的問題,其實他的問題真的好明顯.

如果你仔細的閱讀佢的文章都發覺唔到佢的問題,我勸你暫時唔好接觸股票住,因為你真係好嫩.

我曾經睇過佢好多本書,曾經係佢的fans,但當我睇得越黎越多書,接觸股票越多時,發覺自己曾經是如此的無知.幸好沒大損失.

i have written only 5. just want to educate the su...

2009-11-06T02:08:32.972-08:00

i have written only 5. just want to educate the suckers like you.

also, because cho gave numerous comments every week (and some contradicting each other, i.e. he has both sides), i am sure he will be right for
a few points.

also you really think cho made 2 points, wait:
1. "Dow could not go above 10500": but when? if Dow did not hit 10500 until Jan, cho can still claim victory, coz he will say that's the ST target... without a time frame it is meaningless.
2."Dow will have correction in about Jan 2010".... sure this will be right. but correct from what level? today's or Dec's.

you really need to learn reading into others comments, otherwise you will forever remain a loser in the stock mkt, say if HSI slumped 20% next month, cho will claim victory and you will see him a hero, forgetting he cried sell along after HSI passed 13000.

Nov 5, Dow revisited 10,000, closed at 10,005 Davi...

2009-11-05T22:54:08.440-08:00

Nov 5, Dow revisited 10,000, closed at 10,005
David

i believe one person gave 9 comments above, if you...

2009-11-05T17:52:04.493-08:00

i believe one person gave 9 comments above, if you do not like Chao please do not come to this blog, it is so simple thing you could understand easily. anyway there are two tings that Chao is right above, (1) Dow could not go above 10500, (2)羅素二千（細價股指數）早响9月23日已見頂, it means Dow will have correction in about Jan 2010. let wait and see.

History is only for review and lesson learnt, it c...

2009-11-04T19:24:17.585-08:00

History is only for review and lesson learnt, it cannot forecast the future. Cycle is a myth. Economic model is always changing.

Stepping 2009, the world enters into another economic model. No one knows what will happen. Don't trust the history because it is a dead thing.

Go back to basic, watch the price whether Dow will revisit 10,000.

Poor Chao, you have disappointed so many of your f...

2009-11-04T18:14:03.900-08:00

Poor Chao, you have disappointed so many of your fans especially in the past one year. Please stop writing your bullshits and apologize to your fans. Let those real economist deal with the big problems. Don't make any more forecast from now on. You will lose all your fans if the experience of Japan is proven to be a history. Do you think all the presidents and premiers are dumb and did not know about the bad experience of Japan?

In 2003, Cho said (repeatedly) that Buffet is a bi...

2009-11-04T07:37:35.621-08:00

In 2003, Cho said (repeatedly) that Buffet is a big fool in investing in Petrochina. Buffet made profits of 600-700%!!!Of course, Cho never ever mentioned he ever said this.

In 2008, Cho again said Buffet is a dumb investing in GE and Goldman. Again, Buffet made big profits, in particular Goldman, over 50%.

Some people (Buffet) made money by investing in his own money and being overall smart.

Some (Cho) made money by writing and making people (like the above) believe in him no matter how wrong the things he said.

Warren Buffet (spell right?) will regret to have m...

2009-11-04T06:39:17.409-08:00

Warren Buffet (spell right?) will regret to have made the recent huge investment on US railway for not reading Chao Sir's article first.

2009 has been so much like 2003, i mean cho's comm...

2009-11-04T05:52:55.941-08:00

2009 has been so much like 2003, i mean cho's comments and how HSI performed. in 2003, cho cried market top in May when HSI was at about 9000-9500, having risen 10% from the low. and he keep on insisting that was a bear market rally. of course, we all know what happened in the following 4 years.

But in his recent books, he said he predicted correctly the market bottom and bought a chunk of property stocks in 2003....

I don't know which way the market will go in future, but if this is really only the start of bull market, Cho will one day in future say he bought a chunk of some type of stocks in 2009!!

Wake up, Cho's fans. I have seen too many of you (having been influenced) sold out stocks or property at depressed level, and got condolesences from Cho's writings.

Of course Cho will always make up his arguments: 1...

2009-11-04T05:45:30.957-08:00

Of course Cho will always make up his arguments:
1. Measure it against last peak, i.e. he will always say stocks are lousy until HSI well past 32000.
2. If this doesn't work, he will measure return based on some other currencies, if HKD/USD had depreciated.
3. If even this doesn't work, he will find out some other investment that beats HSI (gold this time, perhaps antiques next time, he will never tell you gold underperform if you choose another time horizon).
4. If after every means have exhausted,he will pick some lousy underperform stocks and insist individual investors would have bought this rather than others (e.g. PCCW).

He had been so wrong over the last several years that it is amazing why he is getting more fans. I suppose this explains why most people lose money in the stock market. They are simply stupid.

价值投资法/Buy and hold etc: Cho will tell you time and...

2009-11-04T05:39:01.573-08:00

价值投资法/Buy and hold etc: Cho will tell you time and again why these didn't work, Dow need 16 years (until 82)to get back to 1966 level, you make a pity 30% return in HSI over the last 12 years, that buy and hold crashed this time....

Of course, his fans, being dump and hipnotised believed. They did not have the brain to note that:
1. Even if you invest just before the 50% crash in HSI in 1987, you would have made 180% even at the market low of 11000 last Oct, an annual return of 9% over 21 years (include dividends), or 12% at current HSI level, not bad. Average inflation was 5%.
2. If you apply 价值投资法late last year, you would have doubled your money in just one year. If you looked for really under book stocks, you would have made several times return!
3. If you measure market return on a fair basis (i.e. peak to peak, trough to trough), stock returns 6-7% after inflation over long term. Higher for developing economies. It is always good to hold at least some stocks.

He will certainly be right one day.... HSI will to...

2009-11-04T05:26:33.149-08:00

He will certainly be right one day.... HSI will top one day, but what level would it be? But then be will say he forecast the drop. He will continue to make fame (and become fans of the idiots).

But his poor fans... who sold out at 13000 in Mar/Apr.... and the even poorer fans, who might have sold short afterwards or buy put warrants...

Watch the price whether it will revisit 10,000 dow...

2009-11-03T16:52:45.727-08:00

Watch the price whether it will revisit 10,000 dow again

港指已达22000，上升亦7-8个月了，曾经有人留言说老曹看错市，起初我有同感，读了他的文章影响买股...

2009-11-01T20:38:10.877-08:00

港指已达22000，上升亦7-8个月了，曾经有人留言说老曹看错市，起初我有同感，读了他的文章影响买股票的兴致，但是我现在明白他可能是对的，不看好未来经济前景并不是不买股票，只要有趋势不管长期还是短期，我们应该敷衍趁势来赚。读他的文可以时时提醒自己趋势可能随时翻转，保持清醒，不盲目乐观。老曹，我这厢有礼了。

We can learn from the histroy but it cannot predic...

2009-10-21T00:12:10.061-07:00

We can learn from the histroy but it cannot predict the future. No one can. Only one black swan shows up, it changes the whole picture.

You are lucky to have sold your stock at HSI 1900 ...

2009-10-20T07:15:58.627-07:00

You are lucky to have sold your stock at HSI 1900 not at 1700 level! If you had listened to Chao in March on RTHK Mandarin channel. You may have sold everything in April!
Don't trust anyone but yourslef. Try to balance your thinking by reading or listening to some other good analyst. Take some time to listen to RTHK Mandarin channel e 線金融網 especially on Monday.
I am sure you can make a good and bold decision yourself.

The answer is the price. What is the price tellin...

2009-10-19T21:23:34.242-07:00

The answer is the price. What is the price telling you now?

I have been reading this blog for quite some time....

2009-10-19T20:22:20.007-07:00

I have been reading this blog for quite some time. I am a true believer of Chao. BUT I have to admit I missed this market run. I sold all my stock at around 19000 level. I don't know when is the best time to get back to the market. Or as Chao predicted I don't think it is worth while to play in the slow Bull market.How are you going to invest your money against HK dollar depreciation?? Please help!

Goes back to the basic, the price reflects the fac...

2009-10-19T18:13:13.332-07:00

Goes back to the basic, the price reflects the fact that never lies.

Did you hear the curse of Dow10,000?

2009-10-14T17:35:34.813-07:00

Did you hear the curse of Dow10,000?

In order to help Chao's fans to save time and thei...

2009-10-14T08:55:50.850-07:00

In order to help Chao's fans to save time and their money, I suggest them to just read the comments made by his readers in June and try to listen to what Chao said on May 13 2009 e 線金融網 RTHK Mandarin channel.
Don't waste too much of your time on what he said anymore.
At this point, HSI 21800, Chao can claim he was right should HSI fall significantly in the coming few months!